On April 21, 2007, Nigeria held presidential elections, marking the first time in Nigeria’s history that the country passed control from one civilian government to another. During the 16 months preceding the election, militant activity in the Niger Delta (especially near Warri and Port Harcourt) has severely impacted Nigeria’s oil production potential by shutting-in an estimated 20 percent of total production. The Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector, which accounts for 95 percent of the country’s total export revenues.
Total energy consumption in Nigeria, by type, 2004. (Source: EIA)
In 2004, Nigeria’s energy consumption mix was dominated by oil (58 percent), followed by natural gas (34 percent) and hydroelectricity (8 percent). Coal, nuclear and other renewables are currently not part of the country’s energy consumption mix. Between 1984-2004, the share of oil in Nigeria’s energy mix has decreased from 77 percent to 58 percent. Natural gas consumption increased from 18 percent to 34 percent. Hydroelectricity has seen a slight increase as well from 5 percent to 8 percent.
Oil
According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Nigeria had 36.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2007. The Nigerian government plans to expand its proven reserves to 40 billion barrels by 2010. The majority of reserves are found along the country's Niger River Delta, in southern Nigeria and offshore in the Bight of Benin, Gulf of Guinea and Bight of Bonny. Nigeria has total production capacity (total potential production capacity if all oil currently shut-in came back online) of three million barrels per day (bbl/d) including two million bbl/d onshore and one million bbl/d offshore.
Nigeria is the world’s eighth largest exporter of crude oil and the country is a major oil exporter to the United States. In 2006, Nigeria’s total oil exports reached an estimated 2.15 million bbl/d. Nigeria shipped approximately one million bbl/d or 42 percent of its crude exports to the United States in 2006. Additional importers of Nigerian crude oil include Europe (19 percent), South America (7.6 percent), Asia and the Caribbean. Despite shut-in production, major importers of Nigerian crude have experienced little to no decrease in Nigerian crude imports over the past 15 months. The steady exports suggest that the new production capacity additions (approximately 545,000 bbl/d) have mostly offset shut-in production.
Nigeria has six export terminals including Forcados and Bonny (operated by Shell); Escravos and Pennington (Chevron); Qua Iboe (ExxonMobil) and Brass (Agip). According to the International Crude Oil Market Handbook, Nigeria’s export blends are light, sweet crudes, with gravities ranging from API 29 – 36 degrees and low sulfur contents of 0.05 – 0.2 percent. Forcados Blend is considered one of the best gasoline-producing blends in the world.
Refining and Downstream Nigeria's refining capacity is currently insufficient to meet domestic demand, forcing the country to import petroleum products. According OGJ, Nigeria's state-held refineries (Port Harcourt I and II, Warri, and Kaduna) have a combined nameplate capacity of 438,750 bbl/d, but problems including sabotage, fire, poor management and a lack of regular maintenance contribute to the current operating capacity of around 214,000 bbl/d. To increase refining capacity, the Nigerian government is granting permits to build several independently-owned refineries. Oando, a leading petroleum-marketing company in Nigeria, is considering building a refinery in Lagos. The refinery would be built in two phases, with each phase providing 180,000 bbl/d of refining capacity.
Nigeria is trying to privatize state entities by selling NNPC's four oil refineries, petrochemicals plants, and its Pipelines and Products Marketing Company (PPMC). IOCs have shown little interest in investing in refinery privatization. However, the Nigerian government recently opened negotiations with Libyan, Indian, and Chinese investors. As of March 2007, Mittal Steel of India was looking to purchase a controlling stake in the Port Harcourt Refinery Company (PHRC), although, no deal has officially been signed.
Natural Gas
Top Proven Natural Gas Preserve Holders, 2007. (Source: EIA)
OGJ estimates that Nigeria had an estimated 182 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves as of January 2007, which makes Nigeria the seventh largest natural gas reserve holder in the world and the largest in Africa. The majority of the natural gas reserves are located in the Niger Delta. In 2004, Nigeria produced 770 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, while consuming 325 Bcf. The government plans to raise earnings from natural gas exports to 50 percent of oil revenues by 2010. However, NNPC estimates that $15 billion in private sector investments is necessary to meet its natural gas development goals by 2010.
Because many of Nigeria’s fields lack the infrastructure to produce natural gas, it is flared. According to NNPC, Nigeria flares 40 percent of its annual natural gas production, while the World Bank estimates that Nigeria accounts for 12.5 percent of total flared natural gas in the world. Nigeria is working to end natural gas flaring by 2008. However, Shell indicated in its 2005 annual report that it would not be able to eliminate routine natural gas flaring until 2009. Shell listed reduced funding and poor contractor performance on some projects as barriers to eliminating natural gas flaring.
